2025 OHSAA Estimated State Cuts For Swimming Revealed
The Ohio high school swimming state meet has complexities not present in other state swimming competitions. Ohio takes the top 32 individual swimmers and the top 16 relays each swim season to the state meet. Within the 5 swimming districts, the top 2 swimmers/relays from each event automatically qualify for the state meet. These complexities make it difficult to know with confidence what the minimum time a swimmer must reach to qualify for the Ohio state meet.
Using several statistical methods and analyzing top recent performance by swimmers, we can predict with some level of certainty the 2025 OHSAA estimated state cuts for swimming. These estimated state cuts for the 2024-2025 season can be found here:
Understanding the OHSAA Estimated State Swimming Cuts
For each division, read left to right, you will find:
1. The 2025 estimated state cut for swimming
2. The anticipated change in the time compared to the 2024 actual state cut
3. The 2024 actual state cut
4. The error in the actual state cut compared to the estimated cut for that year.
For example, the 2024 OHSAA estimated state cut for the Division 1 Girls 200 Medley Relay was 1:49.56. The actual state cut for that event was 1:51.26 (shown in 3rd column). This cut was 1.70 seconds slower than the estimation for that year (shown in 4th column). Looking at the key, you will notice that if a swimmer needed to swim slower than the estimate, the error is highlighted a proportional green. This error can be used while evaluating the posted 2025 estimate.
For example, the 2025 OHSAA estimated state cut for the Division 1 Girls 200 Medley Relay is 1:49.98 (shown in 1st column). This is 1.28 seconds faster than the 2024 actual state cut (shown in 2nd column). While it is possible we could see another 1.70 second error in the estimation and result in 1:51.68, this is unlikely but not out of the question. The errors in the 2024 estimation are included to be used in conjunction with the current season estimate.
2024 Season Analysis
Across both divisions, the boys stayed fairly consistent in their performance. As noted below, the estimations are based on previous season performance, both by the top and bottom qualifiers for the swimming state meet. While these estimations can be accurate, no method of estimation will predict perfectly. Across all events, we see an error rate less than 0.2% for the 2024 swim season.
For the girls, we saw an abnormality in the state cuts for the 2024 season, especially in Division 1. Most notably, we saw the 400 Freestyle Relay allow for nearly a 0.40 second gain per leg to qualify for states compared to 2023 (which was already slower than 2022). We also observed a similar result in the 500 Freestyle. Between the years 2018 and 2022, we saw a noticeable jump in the cut for the 500 Freestyle, making it much more difficult to make it to the state meet during those years so these “slower” cuts could be a result of a return to “normal” qualifying times for that event. The time estimates for Division 1 girls may have been faster than needed, but keep an eye out for this upcoming season as the cuts should return to a faster time.
While there was some fluctuation in the Division 2 Girls estimates, nothing was out of the ordinary. The error rate for the estimates was well within an appropriate range and surprisingly less than the Division 1 Boys.
2025 State Cut Estimation Analysis
While we can’t produce an analysis on every event for each division, below are four events that you should be on the lookout for. Keep an eye on the chart throughout the season to provide motivation and training goals.
You should be on the lookout for a noticeable increase in the Division 1 Girls 500 Freestyle and 400 Freestyle Relay. Both of these events seemed to slower on average last season than previous seasons so you should expect to see the minimum time standard fall to qualify for the state meet. Another notable event is the Division 2 Girls 100 Backstroke, which likely was quicker last year. Expect swimmers just missing the state meet to be good contenders this year for that event.
Expect the Division 2 Boys 400 Freestyle Relay to also require a faster time to qualify for the Ohio state meet this year. Similar to the Girls, this event underperformed compared to previous results for the high school season.
As the season progresses, there may be an update for what to expect as the state meet draws closer and times are beginning to accumulate.
Note: For the 2022-2023 high school swim season, the OHSAA announced they would be expanding the number of swimmers qualifying for the state tournament from 24 to 32 swimmers per event for individual events while relays would remain the same at 24. Due to this change, there is only two years of data for 32nd place, making the 2025 OHSAA estimated state cuts hard to predict. These times are not certified nor endorsed by the OHSAA and are for reference for swimmers and coaches only.